Election
Integrity

Was the 2004 Presidential Election Stolen? Exit Polls, Election Fraud, and the Official Count by Steven F. Freeman & Joel Bleifuss / Foreword by U.S. Representative John Conyers, Jr.

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Election Integrity Blog - October 2008
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Help Needed for Nov 4 Election Verification Exit Poll

by Steven Freeman 10/26/2008 8:12:00 AM
 
Help Needed for November 4 Election Verification Exit Poll 

The Problem:

The vulnerability of US voting systems to mass scale fraud has been well documented, but little has been done to establish meaningful checks. Bad as the last few elections have been, coming elections - including this one - could be worse. Purported "improvements" such as early and mail-voting and purging of voting rolls continue to undermine election integrity and a wide variety of vote suppression augurs poorly for what we may see on November 4.

A Science-Based Solution:

One of the few ways to detect mass scale fraud under such conditions is an Election Verification Exit Poll. Such polls have been used around the world to ensure election integrity and have even been used to overturn fraudulent national elections. On November 4, Election Integrity is engaged in a two-part exit polling effort:

Our Plan:

(1) Our 3rd professional poll to determine and document the degree to which official numbers reflect how people say they have cast their ballots, to investigate any discrepancies and to establish exit polling as a meaningful verification technique (see our May primary pilot project). 


(2) a Citizens Exit Poll with the Election Defense Alliance to:
   ·  extend our ability to ascertain the veracity of official reported voting results;
   ·  detect specific indications of election fraud, which can be further investigated;
   ·  develop citizen polling as a means to detect and deter fraud; and
  
·  give citizens the tools to take control of their elections and their government.

volunteer buttonThe Election Verification Exit Poll projectdonate button

Please Support Our Efforts:

To properly prosecute these efforts, we need your help. In the end, simply pushing a button for one name or another every few years will inevitably be an empty charade. Self-government or, for that matter, good-government, can only result from active involvement and oversight. So please, volunteer or donate. Democracy depends on it.

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About Our Exit Polls: Video: Interview about exit polls and election verification * Pilot poll to test and develop methodology: Kentucky Pilot Project Report (pdf) * How to Conduct a Citizen's Exit Poll workshop (Video from the Ohio Election Protection Conference) * About Exit PollingElection Verification Exit PollsNational Election Pool (Edison/Mitofsky) Media Exit Poll 

Interviews: Guernica Magazine Interview: No Exit (Election Q&A) * Robert F Kennedy Jr:  Was the 2004 Election Stolen? (Rolling Stone) * TV (KPBS) 2004 Election Results Questioned * Radio: Debating Ron Thornburgh (HAVA) on Electronic Voting

Presentations: Elections Can be Stolen, Have been Stolen and Will Continue to be Stolen (video) * National Media Reform Conference: Stolen Elections and the need for Media Reform * American Statistical Association debate with Warren Mitofsky * American Association for Public Opinion Research: Deceptive Polling Practices * American Association for the Advancement of Science: Was the 2004 Election Stolen? 

Recent News: News outlets already dismissing their own exit polls * Not just a fringe issue: Bloomberg News: Voter Fraud, a Red Herring  * For more news, join the Google Discusion Group


The Guardian: Ballot debacle predicted for November 4

by Michael Truscello 10/21/2008 7:28:00 PM

The Guardian: Ballot debacle predicted for November 4

A "perfect storm" could be building for US election day on November 4 because of a combination of sky-high voter interest, new ballot machines and a shortage of poll staff, the independent Pew group warned yesterday. The launch of the 77-page report came as legal clashes over voter registration and hours-long queues formed outside booths set up for early voting in states across the US. Voting is now underway in 46 of the 50 states, though election day is still almost a fortnight away.

Virginia, a battleground state, said it will step up security at polling booths on November 4. Election officials fear trouble because of passions aroused by the election, by long queues, or by people being told they are not eligible to vote. Doug Chapin, director of Pew's electionline.org, said: "People talk about meltdown. It is over-optimistic to think that 130 million people can vote and something does not go wrong ... We have spent eight years sorting the plumbing, but on November 4 we are going to crank up the system."

The excitement created by Barack Obama could result in a record turnout, with African-Americans and young voters, both previously less likely to vote, predicted to cast ballots in large numbers this time round. New voters are registering in record numbers in almost every state. Officials in Virginia recently ordered 200,000 more voter registration forms. Thousands of lawyers are being recruited by Obama and John McCain to police polling booths, offering advice to supporters denied the vote or challenging the eligibility of rivals.

Yesterday's report, Election preview 2008: what if we had an election and everyone came?, says: "Eight years after the uncovered problems in the 2000 election and more than five years after the creation of the Help America Vote Act of 2002, millions of Americans will head to the polls on November 4 in what many are predicting will be the highest-turnout election in recent memory.

"Like the infamous Nor'easter that sank the Andrea Gail, another perfect storm may be brewing, only this one has the potential to combine a record turnout with an insufficient number of poll workers and a voting system still in flux."

Election officials are struggling in some places to recruit the tens of thousands of extra staff that will be needed. Another problem for election officials is the electronic voting systems introduced in many states after the "hanging chads" controversy in Florida in 2000. The report notes that voting machines bought only six years ago have been replaced in Florida, California and other states after officials and Congress became concerned about security and reliability. Some states and counties have returned to paper, but with optical scanners that should theoretically allow for faster counting. This amounts to the third change since 2000.

One of the biggest flashpoints is voter registration, particularly in states such as Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Missouri. Chapin said there is fierce litigation in Indiana and Georgia, where new rules require voters to show photo IDs. Republicans claim this it aimed at preventing vote fraud, while Democrats argue it is a form of voter suppression. The report identifies 12 states where there could be problems on election day: Indiana, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia, and the district of Washington DC. Officials are encouraging early voting and absentee ballots to try to relieve the pressure on November 4.

Election Protection Wiki News Roundup

by Steven Freeman 10/21/2008 11:55:00 AM

Volunteers at the Center for Media and Democracy’s Election Protection Wiki continue to collect reports of ongoing voter suppression.

Among the reports on the Election Protection Wiki from the last few days:

Michigan: GOP admits foreclosure voter suppression scheme.

California voters say they were duped into registering as Republicans

West Virginia voters say electronic voting machines changed their votes from Democrats to Republicans.

US Supreme Court sides with Ohio election officials against striking 200,000 from the voting roles.

And the Obama campaign has asked the Justice Department to expand the special prosecutor’s DOJ politicization probe to see if the ACORN accusations are related

The volunteers are collecting information on polling place shortages, voting machine malfunctions, ballot misprints, voter roll purges, voter intimidation and other election threats. At the same time they are contributing to issue articles on exit polls, student disenfranchisement, the ACORN controversy and other important topics. All of this is being collected into a central location for use by media, activists, advocates and policy-makers on and after election day.

We need every hand we can get to help us get this information ready in time. Come to the Election Protection Wiki and help keep this election honest.

Videos from Ohio Election Protection Conference

by Steven Freeman 10/14/2008 10:29:00 AM
 
Videos from Ohio Election Protection Conference* by *Free Press Staff* October 12, 2008
http://www.freepress.org/departments/display/19/2008/3235

* Keynote Address *(Mark Crispin Miller)* <http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=eon3>

----------------- Election Protection Projects -----------------

* Board of Elections Monitoring (Bob Fitrakis and Steve Rosenfeld)* <http://eon.blip.tv/file/1342932/>

* Election Observer information workshop (Pete Johnson): <http://blip.tv/file/1329843>

* Video the Vote workshop (John Ennis): <http://www.youtube.com/profile_videos?user=eon3>

* Exit Polling workshop (Steve Freeman): <http://blip.tv/file/1329454/>

----------------- Interviews -----------------

* Steve Freeman: Exit Polling and Election Protection <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Ivv9Uz8gEQ>

* Mark Crispin Miller, The 'Trinity' of Reform* <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zHAaZQqOQHw>

* Harvey Wasserman, Poll Workers for Democracy <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHiCFe2GBjk>

* Cliff Arnebeck, Restoring U.S. Democracy <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gv4kRG9ne_g>

Tags:

Felon disenfranchisement

by Steven Freeman 10/9/2008 10:23:00 AM

As a senior researcher for Sourcewatch's  Election Protection Wiki, I am writing many "issues articles," some of which I will periodically blog here. Please feel free to go to the Sourcewatch article to comment or edit this or other articles, as well as to comment here.

 

Felon disenfranchisement

In 2004, 5.3 million Americans are denied the right to vote because of laws that prohibit voting by people with felony convictions.[1] In all but two states (Maine & Vermont), felons are deprived of voting rights while serving their sentence. In ten states, felons are deprived of voting rights for life. [2] In the remaining 34 states, felons' voting rights are restored at some point after their sentence has been completed.

US exceptionalism

Although some countries deny voting rights to prison inmates, the United States is unique in restricting the rights of nonincarcerated former felons.[3] In Finland and New Zealand felons are restricted to vote for several years after their release from prison, but only if the offender was convicted of voting-related crimes or political corruption, and even then it is restored after that. [4]

    US incarceration rates

The United States is also exceptional for the rate at which it issues felony convictions. Felon disenfranchisement has increased dramatically as sentencing rates have surged. The United States has the highest incarceration rate in the world; 1 out of every 100 Americans are in prison [5], compared with 1 out of every 1,000 Canadians and less than .5 of every 1,000 Japanese. [6]

    Extent of disenfranchisement

Loss of voting rights often occurs even without incarceration. In Florida, an offender who receives probation who receives probation for a single marijuana sale faces a lifetime of disenfranchisement. [7] All told, in 2000, Florida legally deprived more than 827,200 citizens who had been convicted of felonies of the right to vote. This represented more than 7% of the Florida voting-age population. And that figure happens to include 31% of the state’s voting-age African-American males. [8]

Racial discrimination

Loss of voting privileges in Florida is not simply a collateral consequence of a felony conviction. Denial of voting privilege has been used historically as a means to suppress black political power. Most states first adopted a felon disenfranchisement statute during Reconstruction when the Fifteenth Amendment and its extension of voting rights to African-Americans were ardently contested.[9]

Racial motivations were openly admitted throughout the South. At the 1901 Alabama Constitutional Convention, John B. Knox, president of this gathering, warned the assembled white people of “the menace of negro domination.” As a remedy, he advocated “manipulation of the ballot” by expanding the state’s disenfranchisement law to include crimes of “moral turpitude,” crimes that included misdemeanors, and even actions that were not punishable by law. [10] And in 1916, the Mississippi Supreme Court upheld the state’s felon disenfranchisement law and ruled, “Restrained by the federal constitution from discriminating against the negro race, the convention discriminated against its characteristics and the offenses to which its criminal members are prone.” [11]

Impact on US elections

The impact has been decisive in important elections. In 2000, Bush won the presidency because he prevailed in Florida by only 537 votes. But sociologists Christopher Uggen and Jeff Manza estimated that 155,000 of the state's disenfranchised felons would have voted for Gore in 2000 and 70,000 would have voted for Bush, resulting in 85,000 net votes -- and a decisive victory -- for Gore.[12]

Because of increasing incaraceration rates, the impact of felon disenfranchisement has been increasing. Uggen and Manza calculate that if former felons had been disenfranchised in 1960 at 2000 rates, John F. Kennedy’s 119,000-popular-vote victory margin in the 1960 presidential election would have disintegrated, and Richard Nixon would have won with a plurality of more than 100,000 votes. [13]


    Illicit Impact on US elections

States have also used felon-disenfranchisment laws as pretext for voter (registration) roll purges that also disenfranchise non-felons. A particularly notorious and conqequential example of faux felon disenfranchisement was the Florida 2000 Database Technologies (DBT) purge of 82,389 mostly African-American, more than 90% of whom should have been eligible to vote. DBT received a no-bid $4 million contract, up from $5,000 for the previous contractor to expand -- and not verify! -- the list. When a DBT employee told Harris's office there were too many names that did not belong, she said she wanted more, i.e., to lower the "match criterion" percentage from c. 90% to c. 80%. [14]

More than half those wrongly purged were African-Americans, even though African-Americans represent only about 11% of the electorate. In contrast, the purge list contained almost no Hispanics, notwithstanding Florida’s sizable Hispanic population. Because in Florida Hispanics vote mostly Republican and African Americans vote overwhelmingly Democratic, this illicit purge, which had been justified by ex-felon disenfranchisement laws, tipped Florida, and thereby the US Presidency the from Gore to Bush. [14]

Articles and resources

   Related SourceWatch articles

   References

  1. Christopher Uggen and Jeff Manza, Locked Out: Felon Disenfranchisement and American Democracy (2006, Oxford University Press)
  2. Fellner and Mauer, “Losing the Vote,” p. 8. Alabama, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nevada, New Mexico, Virginia, and Wyoming. Arizona and Maryland disenfranchise permanently those convicted of a second felony; Tennessee and Washington disenfranchise permanently those convicted prior to 1986 and 1984, respectively. In addition, in Texas a convicted felon’s right to vote is not restored until two years after discharge from prison, probation or parole.
  3. Research by Penal Reform International may be obtained from CURE (Citizens United for Rehabilitation of Errants) in Washington, D.C. Also on file at Human Rights Watch. In Germany the law calls on prisons to encourage prisoners to vote.
  4. The American Series of Foreign Penal Code: Federal Republic of Germany, Title I, § 45 (5). A judge may bar a convicted offender from voting only if the offense is punishable by more than one year of imprisonment and if the crime falls within enumerated sections of the Penal Code covering such crimes as treason, electoral fraud, espionage, membership in an illegal organization.
  5. Adam Lifak 1 in 100 U.S. Adults Behind Bars, New Study Says NY Times, February 28, 2008
  6. Roy Walmsley, World Prison Population List, No. 116, Research Findings, 3d ed. (London, England: Home Office Research, Development and Statistics Directorate, 2002).
  7. Uggen and Manza, “Democratic Contraction? Political Consequences of Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States, American Sociological Review, 2002, Vol. 67 (December: 777–803), 778 (column 2). They cite Mauer 1997a; U.S. Department of Justice 2002; Walmsley 2002.
  8. Steven F. Freeman and Joel Bleifuss, Was the 2004 Presidential Election Stolen? Exit Polls, Election Fraud, and the Official Count, (New York: Seven Stories Press, 2006) Chapter 2. Florida sets the stage.
  9. Angela Behrens, Christopher Uggen, and Jeff Manza, “Ballot Manipulation and the ‘Menace of Negro Domination’: Racial Threat and Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States, 1850–2002,” AJS 109, no. 3 (November 2003): 559–605.
  10. “Journal of the Proceedings of the Constitutional Convention of the State of Alabama” (Montgomery, Ala.: Brown Printing Co., 1901), 12. Cited in Behrens, Uggen, and Manza, “Ballot Manipulation,” 571.
  11. The Free Press, 74 Miss. 266–67, Supreme Court of Mississippi, 1896. Cited in Behrens, Uggen, and Manza, “Ballot Manipulation,” 569.
  12. Christopher Uggen and Jeff Manza, “Democratic Contraction? Political Consequences of Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States American” Sociological Review, 2002, Vol. 67 (December: 777–803). The estimates are based on felon voting rates in other states and the voting behavior of Floridians matching felons in terms of gender, race, age, income, labor-force status, marital status, and education.
  13. Christopher Uggen and Jeff Manza, “Democratic Contraction? Political Consequences of Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States American” Sociological Review, 2002, Vol. 67 (December: 777–803)
  14. Greg Palast, The Best Democracy Money Can Buy (London: Pluto Press, 2002), 44–47. DBT was subsequently merged into ChoicePoint Corporation.

   External resources

Books

Websites

  • The sentencing project mission is to remove barriers to voting by people with felony convictions. Working with state and local partners, the Campaign is engaged in policy reform, litigation, public education, and voter registration both nationally and in targeted states.

Articles

  • Angela Behrens, Christopher Uggen, and Jeff Manza, “Ballot Manipulation and the ‘Menace of Negro Domination’: Racial Threat and Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States, 1850–2002,” AJS 109, no. 3 (November 2003): 559–605.
  • Jamie Fellner and Marc Mauer, “Losing the Vote: The Impact of Felony Disenfranchisement Laws in the United States” (Washington, D.C.: Human Rights Watch and The Sentencing Project, 1998) * Christopher Uggen & Jeff Manza. 2004. “Voting and Subsequent Crime and Arrest: Evidence from a Community Sample.” 'Columbia Human Rights Law Review'
  • Christopher Uggen and Jeff Manza, “Democratic Contraction? Political Consequences of Felon Disenfranchisement in the United States American” Sociological Review, 2002, Vol. 67 (December: 777–803)

Debate:

This page is part of the Election Protection Wiki,
a non-partisan, non-profit collaboration of citizens, activists and researchers to collect reports of voter suppression and the systemic threats to election integrity.

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Announcing The Election Protection Wiki

by Steven Freeman 10/6/2008 12:15:00 PM

The Election Protection Wiki: A Dynamic Website Helps Safeguard America’s Right to Vote

The non-profit, non-partisan Center for Media and Democracy has launched a unique website to help safeguard the fairness and integrity of US elections, using the power of citizen journalism. The Election Protection Wiki is now online at http://www.EPWiki.org . It enables citizens, journalists and government officials to actively monitor the electoral process in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. CMD and its community of volunteer editors will continue to improve, expand and update the EP Wiki beyond the upcoming November 4th election.

The EP Wiki is part of CMD’s award-winning SourceWatch website and operates on wiki software which allows anyone who registers on the website to participate in creating and updating articles. SourceWatch contains in-depth articles on every member of (and most candidates for) the US Congress at http://www.Congresspedia.org. CMD employs both professional and volunteer editors who work together online to ensure articles are fair, accurate and fully documented.

Recent presidential elections were marred by controversies and disputes. Scores of individuals and organizations have been working to investigate and reform US elections, issuing reports and information on topics such as electronic voting machines, voter suppression campaigns and student voting rights. However, this information is spread across many different websites, news sources and databases. The Election Protection Wiki seeks to provide a single web portal for accessing this disparate information. Its information is non-partisan and factual; anyone of any political persuasion will be able to both read from and write to the wiki to help us all protect every American’s right to vote.

“We’re not on the side of any candidate or political party, we're on the side of the American voter. But we’re happy if anyone, partisan or not, uses the Election Protection Wiki,” said Managing Editor Conor Kenny. “For example, the Voter Suppression Wiki is already utilizing information in our Election Protection Wiki; even if they decide to move in a partisan direction, any reports posted by their participants are also available to Republican-leaning or non-partisan activists as well. Journalists, bloggers, activists, election officials and anyone with web access can use the Election Protection Wiki to both read current articles and create new information regarding election problems."

The Election Protection Wiki’s professional staff members include Project Editor Dave Johnson, a Fellow at the Commonweal Institute and Senior Fellow at the Institute for the Renewal of the California Dream; and Senior Researcher Dr. Steve Freeman of the Center for Organizational Dynamics at the University of Pennsylvania. CMD’s Conor Kenny is the Managing Editor of both the Election Protection Wiki and Congresspedia, CMD’s partnership project with the Sunlight Foundation that reports on every member of Congress.

The Center for Media and Democracy is based in Madison, Wisconsin, and located online at http://www.prwatch.org. 

Announcing the Election Verification Exit Poll

by Steven Freeman 10/5/2008 2:01:00 PM

On Tuesday November 4, 2008, Election Integrity, together with Election Defense Alliance and The Warren Poll, will be conducting its third Election Verification Exit Poll (EVEP).

Most of you reading this message are well aware of precipitous trends in America, and also that a key reason for why we're on the edge is the corruption of our electoral processes. But most Americans, and even many of you, still have no idea of the extent to which they are corrupted. Despite rude awakenings in several recent Novembers, the relentless fictions propounded by both major political parties, the media and other purported guardians of the system has lulled America back to into a stupor
. As a nation, we continue to view the spectacle of electoral politics from the grandstands where we cheer, root or boo while gorging on nutritionless calories. If all goes according to plan, we'll enjoy the show and then go to sleep entertained and addle-brained assuming all is, if not well, then at least as it must be.

But although the system is corrupt on every flank, an overwhelming majority of Americans still believe deeply in democracy and understand how election integrity underpins our rights and our future. By exposing corrupted processes and participating politically as opposed to simply spectating, we may yet assert influence and gain some control over the destiny of our country. Indeed, despite a battle of no money versus billions, we are making a difference. The term "election integrity" has entered the lexicon. Since December 2004, hundreds of groups loosely known as the election integrity movement have formed. We likely had a material impact in 2006 when, for the first time in many election cycles, fraud may well have been restrained. In states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and California where our groups have been most active - egregious past results have not been repeated and/or proponents of election reform have won.
 
EVEPs hold perhaps the greatest promise for impact of any technique. The Bush administration has testified that they helped fund exit polls abroad because it is one of the only ways to expose large-scale fraud. Indeed, discrepancies between exit polls and the official results have been used to successfully overturn election results in Serbia, Peru, the Republic of Georgia and, in November 2004, Ukraine. 


In contrast to overseas exit polls, the US National Election Pool (NEP) media exit poll does not report actual survey results, but rather disingenuously legitimizes official numbers, massaging or torturing their own data as necessary to bring them in line. In 2004, we knew of the seven percentage point national discrepancy between how people said they voted and official numbers (11 percentage points in Ohio) only because of a technical glitch that prevented NEP from "correcting" results on election night. Such a mistake won't happen again as those with access to the data are to be - no joke! -quarantined without electronic or phone communication and subsequently sworn to secrecy.


EI, EDA and The Warren Poll are committed to complete transparency in our exit polls, with all methods and data fully shared. We conducted our first EVEP in two Pennsylvania congressional districts during the 2006 general election -- the US first EVEP ever. In this spring's Kentucky Democratic primary we
tested and codified our procedures.  


As with everything we do, our success is possible only with your
donations, volunteer contributions and your help spreading the word about our efforts.

 

Thanks for your help, Steve

 

 

 

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